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Welcome to the
Computing: Future and Now
(CSEG 510 section 8)
Syllabus and Home Page
Why?
The computing field is undergoing rapid change. Awareness of what the
future may hold, and an ability to extrapolate from the past and
present into the future, is interesting as well as valuable to anyone
planning to live and work in the information age (i.e., all of us).
Textbooks:
- The Feb. 1997 issue of Communications of the ACM contains
numerous short articles on the future, by major figures in the field.
A few resources:
- Jakob Nielsen's site, has
some predictions about the Web
- John McCarthy's
(Stanford U.) course on Technological Opportunities for Humanity
- International Telecommunications Union
has various reports on future trends in telecommunications
- F. Cairncross, The Death of Distance, 1997, Harvard
Business School Press and Orion Publishing Group, Limited.
Large excerpts available at
http://www.economist.com (go to "Surveys" then to "Internet" or
"Telecommunications."
- P. J. Denning and R. M. Metcalfe, eds., Beyond Calculation:
the Next Fifty Years of Computing, Springer-Verlag New York, Inc.,
1997.
- Georgia Tech's "Future Computing Environments group
http://www.cc.gatech.edu/gvu/fce/index.html
- Ben Schneiderman's vision.
http://www.cs.umd.edu/projects/hcil/Research/tech-report-list.html
. Look for those papers that apply to future visions and trends.
- Wired magazine has a set of articles on the "future of money."
http://www.wired.com/collections/future_of_money/
- A paper on the future of disk storage: E. Grochowski and
R. F. Hoyt, Future trends in hard disk drives, IEEE Trans. Magnetics,
May 1996, pp. 1850-1854. See also
http://www.storage.ibm.com/storage/technolo/grochows/grocho01.htm
- Virtual reality and the future. Fubini's law. (Local mirror.)
- Transhumanism (Local mirror of logo and FAQ.)
Here is some more about transhumanism.
- Jupiter Communications (you pay for what you get, but do you get what you pay for?). Ditto for Forward Concepts. (Local mirror of one of Jupiter's pages.)
- FBI page on
threat of future electronic attacks on the U.S. (Local mirror here, provided in case of electronic attack.)
- Institute for the Future ...the web site has tons of stuff. Associated with Paul Saffo. (Local mirror of home page.)
paper.
- John McCann on "Cybertrends" (Here is a local mirror of the page.)
- ... and on the "Digital Dawn"
- .. and on "Technology CyberTrends"
- About Interval Research Corp.,
a (computation oriented) company dealing with the future.
- http://www.engr.uark.edu/~djb/Courses/Future/Future.html
- World Future Society Lots of links and stuff
- World Future Society, Boston Chapter Lots more links and stuff
- List of links to people with interesting ideas about the future.
- More links
-
http://www.tcom.bsu.edu/tcom200/discuss.htm has
interesting ideas for how to generate discussion questions.
-
http://gsbkip.uchicago.edu/htmls/savage/seminars.html is about a
course for business forecasting.
- Peter Cochrane's home page (British Telecomm) has a bunch of neat stuff,
see Beyond Calculation references (chap 1?) for URL.
- Lesk's home page (Bellcore) has a bunch of neat stuff, including lots
of interesting graphs you can find by hunting around.
- Farber's home page (upenn.edu?) is moderately interesting, but not
nearly as interesting as Lesk's and Cochrane's.
- Feb. 1997 CACM has lots of short
articles on the future of computing and is
a lot better than the book "Beyond Calculation"
- http://www.rbarry.com seems to have
possibilities but I haven't investigated it enough to
say any more.
- http://leahi.kcc.hawaii.edu/org/tcc-conf covered "Trends and
Issues in Online Instruction"
- Is the future of universities "dim"?
http://www.eecs.wsu.edu/~virtual/hypermail/0113.html
- A magazine, http://biz.swcp.com/xines/science/707.html
!--
- "Larry's World" has an
occasional short term future-oriented mass appeal
article
-->
- Lots of stuff available by doing
we searches on the keyword "futurist"
Reference:
Coordinator:
Daniel Berleant, Ph.D.
- Email: djb@engr.uark.edu
- Office phone: 575-5590
- Office location: Engineering Hall Rm. 324
- Office hours: M-W-F 2:00-3:00.
- Bad weather policy: University rules require informing students
about how they may find out about class cancellations due to bad
weather. For this course: class will be canceled due to bad
weather if and only if the campus is officially closed. Additionally,
due dates that fall on days when significant numbers of students
cannot make it to class will be postponed.
Goals:
Intended to be a valuable and interesting educational experience for
you at the 3-credit level (assuming you sign up for 3 credits).
Therefore, I will provide you with 3 hours/week of quality in-class
time and request that you provide yourself with approximately 6
hours/week of work outside of class on studying and homework. (If you
sign up for less than 3 credits, your work load will be
correspondingly less.)
More specifically -
- Read, answer basic questions about, and discuss current visions
of the future of computers, computer applications, and the information
age.
- Write and present a 10 page annotated bibliography on the web
addressing some topic in the future of computing. (An annotated
bibliography is a list of sources with comments about each.)
Prerequisites by Topic:
- Should have a general background and understanding of computers,
how they work and what they can (currently) do.
Topics and schedule:
Some class sessions will be devoted to discussing visions of the
future that have been published. Other class sessions will be devoted
to presenting and discussing your annotated bibliographies that you
will be developing and which will be published on the web site for
this course.
NOTE: This course will be heavily oriented toward class
discussions rather than one-way lecture presentations by the
instructor.
Class session details:
This semester:
1. Introduction to the class.
.
--- Permission & preference form.
--- Homework #1.
2. Students' predictions and how to think about them.
.
3. "The Body Electric" by Gordon Bell
.
4. "Better Democracy Through Technology" by Brock Meeks
.
5. "Moore's Law: Past, Present, and Future" by Robert Schaller.
6. "Communications Technology and its
Impact by 2010" by David Farber, CACM Feb. 1997.
7. "Software Engineering: Stretching the
Limits of Complexity" by Nancy Leveson, CACM Feb. 1997.
8. Infinite artificial intelligence??
9. Internet push technology
10. "Post-WIMP User Interfaces" by Andries van Dam
11. "World Wide Computer," by Tim Berners-Lee
12. Java dispute between Sun and
Microsoft
13. Globalizing Business, Education, Culture Through the Internet
14. Wearable Computing (cf. "Smart
Clothing: the Shift to Wearable Computing," Steve Mann, CACM,
Aug. 1996.)
15. Chapter 2 in "Beyond Calculation": Vinton G. Cerf, "When They're Everywhere."
16. Discuss "A Connected World" by F. Cairncross
17. Discuss "The Year 2000 Problem and the New Riddle of Induction" by H. Berghel
18. Discuss the future of telecommuting
19. Discuss how to make predictions
20. Discuss chapter 8 in "Beyond Calculation", by Donald Norman, "Why
It's Good that Computers Don't Work Like the Brain."
21. Discuss "Sensors: the Next Wave of Innovation" by P. Saffo
23. Discuss Gordon Bell and James N. Gray, "The Revolution Yet to Happen."
24. Discuss Internet World's webmaster surveys.
25. Discuss "Reviewing the Risks Archives" by P. Neumann
26. Discuss Roger Clarke on Asimov's Laws of Robotics (part 1) (from IEEE Computer)
27. Discuss Terry Winograd, "The Design of Interaction."
28. Discuss future of Object-Oriented Programming: reading - Excerpts from Schach's book
29. Discuss D. Tsichritzis, "How to Surf the Technology Waves We Created" CACM 2/97 p. 49
30. 11/2,
D. Dangubic bibliography
31. 11/4, Z. Li bibliography
32. 11/6, C. Cheah bibliography
33. 11/9, H. Chen bibliography
34. 11/11, J. Fan bibliography
35. 11/13, B. Meng bibliography
36. 11/16, P. McCool bibliography
37. 11/18, J. Gage bibliography
38. 11/20, H. Mei bibliography
39. 11/23, A. Bayyari bibliography
40. 11/25, Dialogues with Documents
41. 11/30, C. Yu bibliography
42. 12/2, G. Whitsitt bibliography
43. 12/4, J. Williams bibliography
44. 12/7, Topic: the Distant Future
From last semester:
2. Students' predictions and how to think about them.
.
6. Chapter 3: Bob Frankston, "Beyond Limits."
8. Chapter 5: "How to Think About Trends,
by R. W. Hamming
---Anonymous survey
9. Chapter 6: Mark Weiser and John Seely Brown, "The Coming Age of Calm Technology."
---Homework statement for Friday
10. Go over students ideas in light of the readings so far.
---Anonymous survey, part 2.
11. Discussion of paper on VR: "....I See and I Remember...." by Peter Cochrane
---Results of previous anonymous survey
12. Discussion of paper on future of robotics: "What if AI Succeeds?" by Hugo de Garis
18. Will web indexes fall into the dustbin of history??
19. Chapter 9: David Gelernter, "The Logic of Dreams."
20. Chapter 10: Franz A. Alt, "End-Running Human Intelligence."
22. Roger Clarke, part 2
28. Future of Network Computers (Hmm, the magazine NC World stopped
publishing in June 1998...
29. Chapter 18: William J. Mitchell and Oliver Strimpel, "There and Not There."
30. Chapter 20: Peter J. Denning, "How We Will Learn."
31: Wednesday 11/5/97. Presentation and discussion: Scott Mills on Communication
32: Friday 11/7/97. Presentation and discussion: Matthew Romine on Wearable Computing
33: Monday 11/10/97. Presentation and discussion: Fengrui Zhang on Whether Computers will Dominate our Future
34: Wednesday 11/12/97 . Presentation and discussion: Shuxuan Yan on Wearable Computing
--- Homework due for next time
35: Friday 11/14/97. Presentation and discussion: Andy Schaefer on Nanotechnology
--- Homework due for next time
36: Monday 11/17/97. Presentation and discussion: Greg Crewell
--- Homework due for next time
37: Wednesday 11/19/97. Presentation and discussion: Zou Wei
--- Homework due for next time
38: Friday 11/21/97. Presentation and discussion: Xiaoxiang Zhang
--- Homework due for next time
39: Monday 11/24/97. Presentation and discussion: Jingyan Luo
41: Monday 12/1/97. Presentation and discussion: Yun Huang
42: Wednesday 12/3/97. Presentation and discussion: Ging Ging Yii
Grading:
- HWs will involve readings, written comments, and occasionally
searching the Web.
- Students will each present one class session, using an
annotated
bibliography which the student will construct. All students
presentations will be in html, on the web, and published on the course
web site.
- The following assumes you have registered for 3 credits. If you are signing up for less than 3
credits, click here.
- Click here for current grades
- Almost all class sessions will require preparation. Aim for an
average of 2 hours of work outside class for every class hour, because
nominally, the average 3-credit course involves 3 hours per week in
class and 2 hours of preparation for each hour in class (that is, 6
hours of work outside of class per week). To ask students to work too
much is not fair to students who have other classes and
responsibilities too. To ask students for too little work is not fair
either! Students have a right to an educational experience at the 3
credit level. Please let me know if the work load differs
significantly from this plan so I can adjust as needed.
- Quizzes and homeworks
will be 2/3 of the grade. Almost all class sessions will
have a homework due, and
begin with a brief quiz based on the reading for that class.
The purpose is to help motivate students to read the material ahead
of time, as this is essential to having an interesting class
discussion.
- The presentation and the annotated bibliography will each be 1/6
of the grade. The annotated bibliography will be developed gradually
throughout the semester.
- If you must be absent from a class due to illness or some other
reason, please contact me as soon as possible.
Assignment of final grade in the course:
90% - 100% -- "A"
89.5% - 89.99% -- "A" or "B," depending on class attendance or excuses & instructor's judgement
80% - 89.49% -- "B"
79.5% - 79.99% -- "B" or "C," depending on class attendance or excuses & instructor's judgement
70% - 79.49% -- "C"
69.5% - 69.99% -- "C" or "D," depending on class attendance or excuses & instructor's judgement
60% - 69.49% -- "D"
59.5% - 59.99% -- "D" or "F," depending on class attendance or excuses & instructor's judgement
50% - 59.49% -- "F," or "U" if you request it and SAFARI will let me